Wednesday, February 10, 2010
效率市場假說 (Efficient Market Hypothesis)
這個理論還滿有趣的
有興趣的可以看看wiki的定義
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis
中文版的就Refer這兩個網站
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/jeysafe/3421966
http://www.ntd2u.net/viewthread.php?tid=758
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Sunday, February 7, 2010
[轉錄] 聰明人 by王文華
我一直不覺得自己很聰明, 但都是一直告訴自己要變成一個聰明人
於是我的言行, 也漸漸的變成一個很像聰明人的模式
有時候會不經意的刺痛別人
其實我自己都知道, 但是有時候是習慣性的思考與習慣性的分析, 或者是說出的話就說了而就不在意
我的好朋友會提醒我, 才會讓我有時候想到有時笨一點也好
有時候只是剛好你知道, 但請不要去給別人壓力
因為你也會有不知道的東西, 分析不出來的case
說到底, 我知道自己不聰明, 但總是在矛盾掙扎著想證明自己並不笨
目標是希望有一天被貞的很聰明的人稱讚自己很聰明
但是沒有想過就算到達那樣的結果後又如何
我親愛的好朋友們, 你們聰明嗎?
亦或真正聰明的人是懂得放下, 追求一種更完整的人生?
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標題: 聰明人 by王文華
聰明不快樂
我認識很多聰明人,他們都是好人。我尊敬且羨慕他們,
原因不是「無知就是福」。「無知」不一定是福,
而且「無知」不是一種選擇。個性上喜歡追根究底的人,
養如何,還是會去追究。
我怕的原因是聰明人大多不快樂。他們有高薪和美滿家庭,
的焦慮。大到地球太溫暖,小到咖啡不夠熱,都讓他們皺起眉頭、
除了自己不快樂,聰明人常把別人弄得很煩。旁人跟他們在一起,
好像偷了東西,怕被看出破綻。不管旁人做得好不好,
然後用客氣或不客氣的語調,讓對方覺得自己價值很低。
我自私,所以最怕的,不是那些聰明而成功的朋友不快樂,
我慢慢變得跟他們一樣。
聰明人的特徵
聰明人有幾項特徵。
第一是他們花很多時間想自己。他們的腦力、情緒、時間、談話,
這種特徵的外在表現是喜歡「講話」。聰明人口齒清晰、夾雜英語、
他們並非刻意地不體貼別人,而是以為獨排眾議就是「做自己」。
我看到自己變成這樣:擅長在會議上獨白,
聰明人喜歡說話,喜歡講道理,喜歡在碰到麻煩時理性地分析,
效率第一
聰明人喜歡給解決方案,因為他們第二個特徵是凡事講求效率。
所以你約他,他要先知道目的、議程,和與會名單。
跟聰明人約開會的地點,通常是他公司或附近的咖啡廳。他坐下來,
得理不饒人
如果會議中談得不順,聰明人可能露出第三個特徵,就是得理不饒人。因為他們聰明,所以對事物的判斷通常是對的。面對判斷錯誤、或沒有錯只是一時反應不過來的人,他們不願意給對方自己思考、然後覺醒的機會,
聰明人中當然有修養好的。他們不會大發雷霆,但會表現出「真不敢相信你竟然連這點也想不通」。表達的方式可能聳聳肩膀、轉轉眼珠,
得理不饒人,於是會延伸。我也曾把別人一個無心之過,延伸到對方的悲劇性格。有沒有碰過這樣的情侶:你忘了買一件他要的東西,他跟你吵了半小時,回顧過去你遺忘的歷史,最後合乎邏輯地做下結論:你不重視他,或你沒有責任感。他們不會接受:「我今天被老闆修理了很累回家時忘了」這樣簡單的理由。聰明人有極高的自制力,不受情緒的影響,不會忘。於是他們假設所有的人都是,也都應該是,這樣。
是我應得
但大部分人並不是這樣。大部分人沒那麼幸運,
但聰明人往往沒看到,或選擇忽略,這些背景。他們階級分明,試著避開社經地位不同的人。所以聰明人不坐計程車,勉強坐時聽自己的iPhone,不理會司機的搭訕。我們自詡思想上前衛開明,要為弱勢發聲。可是真的要去弱勢的部落,第一個問題是那裡有沒有五星級飯店。
聰明人未必都含著金湯匙出生,很多都是靠自己的努力成功。不過一旦成功,他們可能就有「這是我應得的」的心態。因為我當年很努力念書,很努力工作,所以今天這一切是我應得的。和我不同階級的人之所以如此,是因為他們不夠努力。
這當然不完全正確。很多人都努力,但家庭背景、時代趨勢、和純粹的運氣,讓少數人成功,大多數人失敗。沒有人「應得」什麼,不管你再怎麼努力。成功者的故事比較好聽,但失敗者的故事往往比較真實。
讓自己笨一笨
這世界需要聰明人,否則我們都還住在山頂洞中。大多數人,包括我在內,都想變成聰明人,因為那通常會帶來名利。大部分聰明人,都是好人。他們都在努力,努力放鬆自己,努力「克服」自己的聰明。
為什麼要「克服」?因為好多聰明的朋友告訴我:他們並不快樂。
他們都坐到大位,但整天害怕被裁員。他們都有名,但擔心明天就不紅了。他們有外人羨慕的美滿家庭,但全家一起吃飯時講不到兩句話。他們努力運動以維持健美的身體,但也正因如此更不能接受年華老去。他們有最新的手機,但沒有人打電話給他們。他們24小時連線,卻沒有跟任何人產生真正的聯結。
我驚訝地發現:我已經變成他們。
我和聰明的朋友喝咖啡,聊到一半,他接到一通公司的電話,說得先走了。我又坐了一會兒,走時發現:朋友埋單了。過一會兒,朋友傳簡訊給我,說抱歉今天得先走,希望下次再聚。我回信謝謝他,說下次由我做東。我看到聰明人的不快樂未必是個人選擇,有時是身不由己。我發現聰明人的掙扎和一般人屬性不同,但一樣值得尊重。
我離開他公司附近的咖啡廳,走著走著迷了路,半天找不到捷運站。那一刻,我擔心,我不安,我浪費了時間,但我卻有一點成就感。我從小立志變成聰明人,現在卻想用所有的聰明來努力,讓自己笨一笨。
◎刊載於2010年01月12日《聯合報》副刊
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
又回到Wales
Sunday, November 8, 2009
簡單做料理 - 糖醋嘉臘魚
一般都是用黃魚做, 但在UK選擇比較少, 能有便宜的冷凍加臘魚就不錯了.
材料: 魚1條 + 洋蔥切絲 + 紅甜椒切條狀 + 蒜頭 + 薑4~5片切絲 + (配色用碗豆夾, 蔥...or something else)
炸魚材料: 蕃薯粉與麵粉 (比例約為3:1)
調 味 料: 蕃茄醬一大匙 + 醬油一小匙 + 砂糖少許 + 豆辨醬1匙 + 白米醋少許 + 水半杯 + 太白粉水(芶芡用)
作法:
1. 魚洗淨後,可先用香油少許 + 塩少許 + 米酒 + 稍作醃漬, 再將魚均勻炸粉入油鍋用中火炸,將魚炸至金黃色熟
2. 接下來做醬汁: 將蒜, 薑絲, 洋蔥絲放入鍋中爆香, 加水+醬油+蕃茄醬+豆辨醬+醋及砂糖. 煮滾後加入配色的蔬菜稍煮一下再勾芡.
3. 若魚魚上階段未熟, 可將魚放入與醬一起煮入味. 個人喜好為直接將煮好的糖醋醬汁倒入炸好的魚上, 便完成.
Monday, November 2, 2009
簡單做料理 - 韓式辣味雞
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Post Cards 大募集
(風格不限, 可以是你出去旅行的紀念, 最好有描述你當時的心情, 或是你覺得好看, 可以代表你的心情 或是要鼓勵我的都可以)
I would like to get ur postcards from all over the world. And of course Iwill send you back. My address is posted as follows:
Room A APT 131, IQ Five, 140 Bath Row, Birmingham, West Midlands, B15 1NE
P.S. 為了鼓勵大家, 我有五張披頭四的明信片, 先寄來的就先回你囉~希望字不要太少, 我喜歡背後有很多字的 (有點任性~)
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Thursday, August 20, 2009
frustrated and streesful
I don't really want to but I have to, project took me a long time to finish that.
The presentation class in the afternoon, based on our request, Hason (my tutor) gave up having us doing "Starbucks" presentation. Instead, he said he is streeful and told us some role models he met in his life.
One is a dean of his department at buiness school, the characteristic of him is "Efficient", "Immune from sleep" "Always replys mail whinin 2 hours no matter what time".I know what he tried to imply that we were not good student and not suitable for business study. This is the first point that frustrated me.
Then, we got the assessment of our mid-trem case study writing and presenting, then I found that me and our group got very low grades. I know I am not really good enough and can't manage English very well, but scores shouldn't be like that. "Introspection" it's the first word on the top of my head. If I learnt not enough? I felt upset today not only for the lack of sleep but also the low score. I just started having dounts about my ability. That's the second big thing that frustrated me.
Not mention to the housing chaos, I feel sorry for the everyone who planed to live wtih me. This also because I found something that beyond my ability so I need to make a choice.
Anyway, I gonna contiuning fighting for my projcet and I hope I could make it before deadline. Bless me.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
The story of how to cause Finacial Crisis
Saturday, August 15, 2009
文章分享 History Never Ends -- I Hate to Bother You
他總是提醒我們要看 flip side of things, 而且反對主流媒體 (尤其是美國) 的 propaganda
卻永遠對我們說 Don't get me wrong. 他還是永遠支持語言學習與學習商業知識
只是因為他太喜歡"人"所以無法忘懷一些道德面與被人忽視的意見
造成縱使他是MBA畢業卻有著 "Anti-Brand"的反骨
先進國家使用"3C"控制著世界, 侵蝕弱勢國家與文化
- Culture -- 從 clothes開始, Jeans, T-shirt...
- Currency -- Control the economic power
- Communication -- Language
剛開始我也比較沒辦法接受一個Pakistani是我們的tutor
But I have to confess, he is the best. 當別人在語言學習的時候
我們學的是thought-provoking, inspiration, out-side thinking的 skill
Anyway, 先貼這文章給大家分享
來源:
http://informationclearinghouse.info/article23262.htm
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History Never Ends
I Hate to Bother You
By Eduardo Galeano
August 13, 2009 "Counterpunch" -- I’d like to share with you some questions--some flies that keep buzzing in my head.
Is justice right side up?
Has world justice been frozen in an upside-down position?
The shoe-thrower of Iraq, the man who hurled his shoes at Bush, was condemned to three years in prison. Doesn’t he deserve, instead, a medal?
Who is the terrorist? The hurler of shoes or their recipient? Is not the real terrorist the serial killer who, lying, fabricated the Iraq war, massacred a multitude, and legalized and ordered torture?
Who are the guilty ones--the people of Atenco, in Mexico, the indigenous Mapuches of Chile, the Kekchies of Guatemala, the landless peasants of Brazil—all being accused of the crime of terrorism for defending their right to their own land? If the earth is sacred, even if the law does not say so, aren’t its defenders sacred too?
According to Foreign Policy Magazine, Somalia is the most dangerous place in the world. But who are the pirates? The starving people who attack ships or the speculators of Wall Street who spent years attacking the world and who are now rewarded with many millions of dollars for their pains?
Why does the world reward its ransackers?
Why is justice a one-eyed blind woman? Wal-Mart, the most powerful corporation on earth, bans trade unions. McDonald's, too. Why do these corporations violate, with criminal impunity, international law? Is it because in this contemporary world of ours, work is valued as lower than trash and workers' rights are valued even less?
Who are the righteous and who are the villains? If international justice really exists, why are the powerful never judged? The masterminds of the worst butcheries are never sent to prison. Is it because it is these butchers themselves who hold the prison keys?
What makes the five nations with veto power in the United Nations inviolable? Is it of a divine origin, that veto power of theirs? Can you trust those who profit from war to guard the peace?
Is it fair that world peace is in the hands of the very five nations who are also the world’s main producers of weapons? Without implying any disrespect to the drug runners, couldn’t we refer to this arrangement as yet another example of organized crime?
Those who clamor, everywhere, for the death penalty are strangely silent about the owners of the world. Even worse, these clamorers forever complain about knife-wielding murderers, yet say nothing about missile-wielding arch-murderers.
And one asks oneself: Given that these self-righteous world owners are so enamored of killing, why pray don’t they try to aim their murderous proclivities at social injustice? Is it a just a world when, every minute, three million dollars are wasted on the military, while at the same time fifteen children perish from hunger or curable disease? Against whom is the so-called international community armed to the teeth? Against poverty or against the poor?
Why don’t the champions of capital punishment direct their ire at the values of the consumer society, values which pose a daily threat to public safety? Or doesn’t, perhaps, the constant bombardment of advertising constitute an invitation to crime? Doesn’t that bombardment numb millions and millions of unemployed or poorly paid youth, endlessly teaching them the lie that “to be = to have,” that life derives its meaning from ownership of such things as cars or brand name shoes? Own, own, they keep saying, implying that he who has nothing is, himself, nothing.
Why isn’t the death penalty applied to death itself? The world is organized in the service of death. Isn’t it true that the military industrial complex manufactures death and devours the greater part of our resources as well as a good part of our energies? Yet the owners of the world only condemn violence when it is exercised by others. To extraterrestrials, if they existed, such monopoly of violence would appear inexplicable. It likewise appears insupportable to earth dwellers who, against all the available evidence, hope for survival: we humans are the only animals who specialize in mutual extermination, and who have developed a technology of destruction that is annihilating, coincidentally, our planet and all its inhabitants.
This technology sustains itself on fear. It is the fear of enemies that justifies the squandering of resources by the military and police. And speaking about implementing the death penalty, why don’t we pass a death sentence on fear itself? Would it not behoove us to end this universal dictatorship of the professional scaremongers? The sowers of panic condemn us to loneliness, keeping solidarity outside our reach: falsely teaching us that we live in a dog-eat-dog world, that he who can must crush his fellows, that danger is lurking behind every neighbor. Watch out, they keep saying, be careful, this neighbor will steal from you, that other one will rape you, that baby carriage hides a Muslim bomb, and that woman who is watching you--that innocent-looking neighbor of yours—will surely infect you with swine flu.
In this upside-down world, they are making us afraid of even the most elementary acts of justice and common sense. When President Evo Morales started to re-build Bolivia, so that his country with its indigenous majority will no longer feel shame facing a mirror, his actions provoked panic. Morales’ challenge was indeed catastrophic from the traditional standpoint of the racist order, whose beneficiaries felt that theirs was the only possible option for Bolivia. It was Evo, they felt, who ushered in chaos and violence, and this alleged crime justified efforts to blow up national unity and break Bolivia into pieces. And when President Correa of Ecuador refused to pay the illegitimate debts of his country, the news caused terror in the financial world and Ecuador was threatened with dire punishment, for daring to set such a bad example. If the military dictatorships and roguish politicians have always been pampered by international banks, have we not already conditioned ourselves to accept it as our inevitable fate that the people must pay for the club that hits them and for the greed the plunders them?
But, have common sense and justice always been divorced from each other?
Were not common sense and justice meant to walk hand in hand, intimately linked?
Aren’t common sense, and also justice, in accord with the feminist slogan which states that if we, men, had to go through pregnancy, abortion would have been free. Why not legalize the right to have an abortion? Is it because abortion will then cease being the sole privilege of the women who can afford it and of the physicians who can charge for it?
The same thing is observed with another scandalous case of denial of justice and common sense: why aren’t drugs legal? Is this not, like abortion, a public health issue? And the very same country that counts in its population more drug addicts than any other country in the world, what moral authority does it have to condemn its drug suppliers? And why don’t the mass media, in their dedication to the war against the scourge of drugs, ever divulge that it is Afghanistan which single-handedly satisfies just about all the heroin consumed in the world? Who rules Afghanistan? Is it not militarily occupied by a messianic country which conferred upon itself the mission of saving us all?
Why aren’t drugs legalized once and for all? Is it because they provide the best pretext for military invasions, in addition to providing the juiciest profits to the large banks who, in the darkness of night, serve as money-laundering centers?
Nowadays the world is sad because fewer vehicles are sold. One of the consequences of the global crisis is a decline of the otherwise prosperous car industry. Had we some shred of common sense, a mere fragment of a sense of justice, would we not celebrate this good news?
Could anyone deny that a decline in the number of automobiles is good for nature, seeing that she will end up with a bit less poison in her veins? Could anyone deny the value of this decline in car numbers to pedestrians, seeing that fewer of them will die?
Here’s how Lewis Carroll’s queen explained to Alice how justice is dispensed in a looking-glass world:
“There’s the King’s Messenger. He’s in prison now, being punished: and the trial doesn’t begin until next Wednesday: and of course the crime comes last of all.”
In El Salvador, Archbishop Oscar Arnulfo Romero found that justice, like a snake, only bites barefoot people. He died of gunshot wounds, for proclaiming that in his country the dispossessed were condemned from the very start, on the day of their birth.
Couldn’t the outcome of the recent elections in El Salvador be viewed, in some ways, as a homage to Archbishop Romero and to the thousands who, like him, died fighting for right-side-up justice in this reign of injustice?
At times the narratives of History end badly, but she, History itself, never ends. When she says goodbye, she only says: I’ll be back.
Translation from Spanish for CounterPunch: Dr. Moti Nissani
Among his other achievements, in 1971, Eduardo Galeano wrote The Open Veins of Latin America and, in 1976, escaped death at the hands of CIA-financed Argentine death squads.